The two most commonly used sources of energy in today’s world are hydrocarbons and electricity; however, on the morning of February 28, 2026 (Iranian time), the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, which belongs to Iran and through which one-third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and nearly 20 percent of global oil consumption passes, makes it a strategically important location for international trade. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps’ VHF radio broadcasts, stating that “no vessel will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” and the U.S. Navy has warned against navigating in the area — which includes the entirety of the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, the North Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz — saying the safety of shipping cannot be guaranteed. The Strait of Hormuz has been brought to a standstill, with multiple oil and gas resources facing shutdowns, and Russia has warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the choking of oil. Ships are in constant danger, leading to higher oil prices, with British media outlet BBC claiming that “oil prices rise after ship attack near Strait of Hormuz.”
Looking at the underlying logic of global commodity pricing and energy supply chains, a shipping shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz is not a simple regional risk event, but one that would trigger a systematic pricing revaluation in global energy markets. This is known as the “world oil valve” waterway, is the Middle East oil-producing countries more than 90% of the oil and gas out of the only channel, once the shutdown, will directly cause the physical gap in the supply of fossil energy, superimposed on the international shipping insurance rates soared, the tankers collectively stranded to avoid the risk of the crude oil and natural gas futures market hedge funds will be quickly influx, promote the Energy prices jump. This kind of geopolitical conflict triggered by the hard disruption of supply, far more than conventional market volatility is more impactful, will be quickly through the trade and financial chain, conduction to the global manufacturing industry, transportation industry and even residents of the consumer side, the formation of the whole chain of the cost of raising the effect.
From the economics of energy substitution and historical market experience, the price effect of fossil energy and electricity will be rapidly amplified in the phase of soaring oil prices. High oil prices directly push up the cost of fuel cars, industrial gas costs and thermal power generation costs, and electricity by virtue of a stable supply, cost-controllable characteristics of the global energy consumption of rigid alternative options. Europe, Japan, South Korea, India and other economies that are highly dependent on Middle East oil and gas, will prioritize energy security over economic growth, accelerating new energy subsidies, wind power installed capacity expansion and grid transformation; ordinary consumers will also be due to the widening gap between the cost of cars, preferred electric transportation, which is cost-driven and energy security under the dual logic, the market spontaneously choose the transformation path, but also the previous high oil price cycle has been It is also a definite trend that has been verified in previous high oil price cycles.
From the battery industry chain supply and demand rigidity and upstream resource attribute analysis, the battery as the core carrier of electric energy storage and application, its demand growth rate will be significantly ahead of the overall growth rate of electric energy consumption. The current global lithium, cobalt, nickel and other battery core minerals mining and smelting, there is a long production capacity cycle, high dependence on logistics, low supply elasticity, short-term can not match the sudden growth in demand; at the same time, rising oil prices will also push up the cost of mineral processing, shipping logistics production costs, and further exacerbate the pressure of raw material prices. Power battery and energy storage battery double demand resonance, superimposed on the supply side of the rigid constraints, will directly drive the battery products and upstream anode, anode, electrolyte, diaphragm and other raw materials to enter the price channel, the formation of the whole industry chain price upward trend.
in the battery and raw material prices in the future, Tun a batch of goods is necessary to stand in the financial investment and industrial management of the dual perspective, the geopolitical conflict triggered by the energy substitution market, with sustainability and certainty of the two core features. Battery and raw material prices are not short-term speculative fluctuations, but the medium- and long-term trend after the restructuring of the supply and demand pattern. For the industry chain upstream and downstream enterprises, traders, stocking up in advance to lock the price, not only can effectively hedge the cost pressure brought about by rising prices, but also accurately grasp the industrial dividends brought about by the transformation of the energy structure, is to deal with the current market environment, to protect the stability of the operation of the rational decision-making.
